Friday, January 4, 2008

Nickel Sifting #2: A Finite Supply

The workhorse of statistical analysis is the normal distribution curve, which is derived from a set of events in a fixed 50/50 ratio. To be more specific, a set of events of infinite size which exhibit that ratio.

Since this concept provides a convenient approximation to real statistical data, it's easy to fall into the habit of assuming that it does describe an existent set of events - that there is actually something approximating an infinite-sized cornucopia from which samples can be taken, ad infinitum and world without end.

Of course, in the real world, finitude intrudes: we need not imagine a poker game with a single deck, eleven players and no Texas-hold-'em option to imagine it. Myself, I don't need to imagine it at all: I bumped into it during this round.

Like all of the other coin boxes I've gotten, I obtained the latest batch of nickels at the Royal Bank of Canada, Yonge & Cranbrooke branch. This box of 2,000 nickels yielded only 23 American nickels, for a ratio of 1.15%. The last one yielded 59, for a ratio of 2.95% I actually got more pre-1965 "scarcities," including one 1964 nickel that looks like it left the Mint presses a few months ago, than Americans on this round.

It looks like I need to hit another branch, as the cornucopia seems to be a'emptyin'.

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